Short-term business statistics (STS) include many key indicators that are vital for proper analysis of recent economic developments and for effecting monetary and economic policy.
Due to the current economic scenario, the profile and use of short-term business statistics is expanding rapidly, as information flows have become global and the latest news release for an indicator may have a significant effect on decisions taken by policy makers and business leaders. These timely indicators, provided in the form of indices, allow a rapid and broad assessment of the economic climate.
Of the key indicators relating to short-term statistics, services statistics plays an integral role. Although the number of indicators related to services statistics was limited up to a couple of months ago, such activities are playing an ever-increasing role in the economy, as shown in Table 1. While agriculture and industry are gradually experiencing a downward trend in their contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the services sector is on the rise. Consequently, the need for more short-term statistics pertaining to the services industry has grown.
One might ask how short-term services indicators are derived and disseminated. Essentially, every quarter the NSO’s Short-term Statistics Unit mails approximately 450 questionnaires to a sample of enterprises within the services sector, as required by Council Regulation (EC) 1165/98, requesting turnover, employment and wages and salaries data. The sample is a stratified one, and results are scientifically grossed-up to represent the services population. Some service activities are beyond the scope of this regulation, and subsequently the published indices do not incorporate such activities: financial and insurance activities, real estate activities, scientific research, veterinary services and rental/leasing activities.
Aggregates are disseminated within six to seven weeks after the reference period has elapsed. Last month, after a three-year absence, the NSO started publishing a set of quarterly short-term services indicators covering transportation and storage, accommodation and food services activities, and information and communication, among others. Tomorrow, NSO will also issue a news release on short-term wholesale, retail and motor trade.
These releases show changes in turnover and employment in a particular quarter when compared to the corresponding period a year earlier, and when compared to the previous quarter. The aim of the release is to provide users with information on the business cycle within the services sector. Results are compiled and published according to the statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community, known as NACE Rev. 2.
Short-term indicators showed year-on-year declines in all sectors in the third quarter last year, but quarter-on-quarter gains. Similarly, employment in services fell by 4.0 per cent year-on-year, but rose marginally by 0.2 per cent over the previous quarter. By their very nature, short-term statistics are marked as provisional when they are initially released, and eventually revised in subsequent quarters. However, they are meant to give an early snapshot and a broad trend of how service activities performed during the quarter under review.
Enterprises’ co-operation in a factual and timely manner is crucial for such statistics to be meaningful.
Mr Camenzuli is Manager of the Short-Term Statistics Unit at the National Statistics Office.
