NEWS | Wednesday, 28 May 2008

Climate change: The global challenge and an action plan for Malta

Excerpts from Martin Scicluna’s speech on climate change at a public talk at the Chamber of Commerce last Thursday
…I am conscious as I say that that there is a certain amount (of action to take up the global challenge) already going on. For example, we appear at last to be tackling our response to the EU obligations to limit greenhouse gas emissions. I am also aware that Malta is updating the national communication to the UN on climate change of 2004. But I am not aware of any coordinated response to all the likely challenges that will confront us. My concerns are therefore more down to earth.
I’ll do this in three parts. I shall start by describing what may happen to Malta – how Malta will be affected geo-physically by climate change. Secondly, I’ll highlight the consequent challenges arising from this. And thirdly, I’ll go on to propose a possible action plan for Malta.
Let me stress right at the start that the action plan will not provide all the answers. But it will, I hope, pose the right questions to government and policy-makers to follow. It will attempt to focus minds on the preparations which a prudent government should be setting in train.
Today, mankind is poised for possibly its greatest trial – the outcome of which will greatly compound today’s massive problems of world poverty and social injustice. And whether we like it or not, we in Malta are a part of it. Put starkly, climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health, use of land, the economy and the environment itself.
Climate change is a clear and present danger. No one can predict its outcome or its effects with complete certainty. But scientists now know enough to understand the risks. Malta will not escape them.
What will be the effects on Malta? Global warming will affect Malta in several ways. But most importantly in two absolutely crucial and fundamental respects – our supply of fresh water and our energy security. The impact of global warming will lead to more extreme and haphazard weather patterns with prolonged Saharan-type heat-waves. Shorter but more intense rainy periods, flash floods and longer, dryer spells. The escalating rise in temperature will be accompanied by severe water shortages as rainfall over the central Mediterranean is drastically reduced – by as much as 20 per cent or 30 per cent.
The biggest impact of this will be to exacerbate our problems with our water table which is already not being replenished quickly enough. Soil erosion will be accelerated. Lack of water in the soil and rising sea levels will lead to increased salinity. Crop yields will be diminished. The process of desertification will become unstoppable.
Threats to people’s health will increase not only from the effects of heat waves, but also from water and airborne diseases such as malaria. Our marine ecology, which is already being adversely affected, will become worse.
What will be the consequent economic and social challenges to Malta? Seven principal areas will be affected. Water, energy, security (which I regard as part of the climate change challenge), tourism, food security, health, the built environment and climate refugees.
Taking each of these in turn. The importance of water as an essential resource of all life and a vital requirement for good health, sanitation and as a critical contributor to almost all industrial production is self-evident. It is a resource of vital strategic, social and economic importance.
Energy to drive our power, to drive our industry, to drive our transport, to run our desalination plants – which provide over 50 per cent of our water – and every comfort of modern civilised life will not only become extremely expensive (recent price rises are only the beginning) as big price increases are made to hold energy demand and carbon emissions in check. We are also under intense pressure to make cuts in our carbon emissions.
As the recent Deutsche bank report has highlighted, Malta’s attraction as a tourist destination will be severely undermined – with all the economic consequences that might follow.
The reliability and availability of food supplies to a country that imports virtually everything to feed its people, our continued access to enough food at a reasonable cost will be threatened.
The demands on our health infrastructure and support systems for medical protection of our people will be placed under strain from new diseases such as malaria, which was once endemic in Malta in the past.
Global warming is already having an effect on the mass movements of population from countries already affected by climate change as people search for new livelihoods and fresh resources to survive. We may see an increase of illegal immigrants as a result of climate refugees on a scale not hitherto experienced by us. The effects on the built environment of coastal erosion in a country as small and crowded as this.
Those are the challenges. What are we going to do about them? We now need to start drawing up contingency plans to cope with every aspect of this vexed issue. The paramount duty of any government is to ensure the safety and security of its people. And that their liberty and economic well-being are assured. This imperative should dictate the government’s policies when it comes to sustainability and dealing with the threats from climate change. In my judgement, it is not too early to start.
To those who would argue that it will be some while before the effects of climate change begin to impinge on our comfortable lives, the response must be a loud and clear “they have already started – and may get worse.” the challenge now is to keep it within manageable limits.
Malta’s energy supplies and power generation sources are already overstretched. Our mean sea level water aquifer is already under severe threat. The price of some staple foods has already escalated - due both to shortages as well as pressure to go for biomass. Our fishing zones have already been affected. Illegal immigration is already partly caused by climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Think Sudan, Darfur.
What can we and should we do? What preparations can be made now? The short answer is “a lot”. Contingency planning which brings together all the factors and the expertise involved is not only prudent and sensible, but also an essential duty for any responsible government. We do not claim to have all the answers. But we can pose the right questions and let the experts work to find the best answers. The vital thing now is to get the thinking started and to institutionalise the measures which may need to be taken in due course. Let me propose some possibilities.
On water, there is an urgent need to implement a national water policy plan. One was produced about three years ago, but has lain in the minister’s pending tray. We need to start implementing it with urgency. Start building the network of underground tunnels to capture storm water which was announced some months ago. Introduce better water conservation measures. Increase the price of water judiciously by removing subsidies gradually. Register all bore-holes. Raise realistic charges to consumers of water from bowsers. Harvest rain water in new buildings.
Energy. We are slowly making a start on renewable energy under the watchful eye of the EU. But there is so much more we can do. Invest in and encourage renewable energy sources. Implement urgently the steps needed to replace our expensive, fossil-fuel producing energy plants. Ensure that our decisions are informed both by economic and environmental considerations.
But, in doing so, we cannot overlook the strategic considerations – the need for stability and reliability of supply. The need to ensure that we do not find ourselves hostage to suppliers or events beyond our control.
Tourism. Continue to develop Malta’s tourism branding to focus more on the cultural tourism aspects during the so called shoulder months, rather than the sun and sea aspects of the summer since the summer is likely to become unattractive. Carry out a comprehensive carrying capacity study in the light of the worst case scenario and start adapting our tourism product accordingly. Address the question of whether we can any longer sustain over a million visitors a year given the increasing pressure on water and energy resources. Study the implications of a severe drop in summer bookings and seek to replace the drop in numbers by other means.
Food. Malta will never be self-sufficient. There are several unknowns about global food security.
Rising demand and greater climatic variability and more fluctuations in crop output will mean even more uncertainty for prices and availability. We shall have to absorb the increasing costs of some staples. We must make a frank assessment of what the consequences of rising food prices on our economy will be. At the EU level we should be examining the implications of food shortages and possible burden-sharing arrangements. We need to examine carefully the costs and benefits of using the little agricultural land we have left for better food production. We need perhaps also to be examining the strategic food reserves we need to be storing, where and how much. We’ve done it in the past. Perhaps we should be doing it again.
Health. Our contingency planning here can be based on the acquisition of better information and public education. On preparing our health infrastructure in readiness. We know that the incidence of heat strokes and other heat-related illnesses will increase. We may become vulnerable to malaria and dengue fever and cholera. According to the British medical association, skin cancer cases may also increase. Sun strokes will increase. The old and very young will be vulnerable. These are all matters which we can prepare for and train our doctors. Good public health information and education can help us avoid many of the consequences.
The built environment. Coastal erosion will occur over time. We should be examining the vulnerable areas and possibly investing in structures to prevent or mitigate the worst effects. If Holland can do it over the centuries and since, so should we.
Climate refugees. This too is a great unknown. Immigrants will not come here by choice. But if the situation is bad enough even Malta would be a better proposition than the parts of Africa from which they will be fleeing. But the problem is as much a European as a Maltese one. There is a vital need here for a coordinated EU response, and for that response to start right away. Finally, what if it becomes really bad – do we need our own emigration plans?
Good contingency planning involves thinking through – realistically and in a hard-headed manner - the possible consequences of what may well happen. And laying plans accordingly to avoid or mitigate their effects. The earlier we confront these uncomfortable issues, the better we shall be prepared.
Martin Scicluna is the Executive Chairman of the Today Public Policy Institute (TPPI).